In a repeat of the Final of 2014, the only thing standing between Atletico Madrid and a first UEFA Champions League is their hated neighbours from across town – the might of Real Madrid.
To get this far, Atletico have had to fend off both Barcelona and Bayern Munich, both of who are first in La Liga and Bundesliga respectively.
What's more, Atleti have not lost to their fellow townies this year, winning 1-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu and sharing the points at Vincente Calderon.
With this logic in play, and also considering AM are higher in the league than Real, they should at least be favourites going into the Final, but as it currently stands, they are not.
However, when you have 10 European Cups in your corner, this is somewhat understandable. Especially when you beat your neighbours to win your last one.
After a slow start under Rafael Benitez by RM standards, they have enjoyed a generally more successful stint in new manager Zinedine Zidane's first four months in charge, despite having actually not improved their position in the league.
With a club of such a rich history of success, both domestically and in Europe, most would expect Real Madrid to somehow succeed when all the statistical odds are stacked against them.
After all, the Champions League is where champions are made. Real have been doing so for years. Can they do it again?
Under Diego Simeone, Colchoneros have built their name on defence, toughness and teamwork, which, when executed to perfection, has been able to undo even the “best” teams in Europe this season (see Barca, Bayern).
Clearly, they have been able to do it against their cross-town rivals too. After a 13 year winless streak against los Blancos, they not lost any of their past six encounters since the 2013 Copa del Rey Final.
But when it comes to Europe, something happens. Whilst the perfect synchronicity of Atletico Madrid is perfect for regular season La Liga football, something else is required in the CL. Something that Real Madrid certainly has.
Whilst the attacking flair of Antoine Greizmann has proved the necessary revelation required for Atletico to reach this point in the UCL (as they did in 2014 behind Diego Costa), Real has it in every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
This is why Real Madrid currently leads Atleti in UEFA Champions League encounters 2-0.
So, will 2016 again prove the importance of champions in the Champions League? Or will the hottest team in Europe lift the biggest prize in club football for the first time?
I think they will. 1-0 Atletico Madrid.
